Disney is once again betting on one of its most loved animated classics. The studio’s live-action adaptation of Moana has officially begun its theatrical journey, collecting $4.5 million from preview screenings ahead of its full North American release. While the early numbers have given the film a decent launch, the real test begins this weekend as Disney looks to turn another animated favourite into a live-action blockbuster.
The remake arrives with high expectations and even higher costs. Carrying a reported production budget of around $250 million, the film needs a strong worldwide performance to justify its investment. Analysts remain divided over how the adventure musical will perform during its opening weekend, making Moana one of the most closely watched releases at the global box office this week.
Disney hopes Moana continues its winning legacy
The new version stars newcomer Catherine Laga’aia as Moana, while Dwayne Johnson returns to reprise his fan-favourite role as the demigod Maui. Johnson’s return has been one of the biggest selling points of the remake, especially since his performance helped make the original animated film a worldwide success nearly a decade ago.
Current industry projections suggest the film could earn between $60 million and $65 million during its domestic opening weekend. However, some forecasts are considerably more cautious, placing the debut closer to $40 million. If the film lands near the lower end of those estimates, Disney could face an uphill battle considering the film’s enormous production budget and global marketing expenses.
Fortunately for the studio, overseas markets may once again play a crucial role. International projections indicate Moana could generate another $70 million to $75 million during its first weekend worldwide. Disney’s live-action remakes have historically performed well across global territories, and the company will be hoping international audiences provide the momentum needed for a healthy worldwide launch.
The preview collection of $4.5 million places Moana alongside several recent Hollywood releases. Pixar’s Lightyear earned $5.2 million in previews before opening to $50.6 million, while Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire collected $4.7 million in previews before debuting with $45 million. Those comparisons suggest Disney’s latest remake could still finish the weekend with respectable numbers despite mixed forecasts.
Can Moana match Disney’s biggest remake successes?
Disney’s live-action strategy has delivered wildly different results over the past decade. Massive hits such as The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast and this year’s Lilo & Stitch all crossed the $100 million mark during their domestic opening weekends before becoming major worldwide successes. On the other hand, films like Dumbo and Snow White struggled to generate the same level of excitement, opening with $45 million and $42 million respectively.
One challenge facing Moana is simple timing. The remake arrives only two years after Moana 2 became one of Disney’s biggest theatrical successes. Originally planned as a television series before being transformed into a feature film, the sequel exceeded expectations by crossing $1 billion worldwide and delivering an enormous $225 million opening during the Thanksgiving holiday frame.
The original animated Moana, released in 2016, also remains one of Disney Animation’s most successful modern films. It debuted with $56 million domestically before sailing to approximately $680 million worldwide, becoming a long-term favourite thanks to its music, characters and strong streaming popularity. That lasting popularity is one reason Disney believes audiences are ready to revisit the story in live-action form.
Horror and family films compete for weekend audiences
Moana won’t have the box office entirely to itself this weekend. Warner Bros. is releasing Evil Dead Burn, the sixth chapter in the long-running horror franchise. The film has already earned $2.3 million in previews and is expected to debut between $15 million and $20 million domestically. With a reported production budget of around $20 million, the horror sequel has a much lower financial hurdle than Disney’s blockbuster.
Meanwhile, several holdover releases continue their theatrical run. Universal’s Minions & Monsters, last weekend’s No. 1 film, is projected to collect another $17 million to $22 million in its second weekend. Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is also expected to remain among the top earners with another $18 million to $20 million during its fourth weekend. A24’s Olivia Wilde-directed The Invite is expanding nationwide and hopes to bring in around $4 million to $5 million.
For Disney, however, nearly all attention remains fixed on Moana. Strong family attendance over the weekend could quickly silence concerns surrounding the film’s budget and prove that audiences still have plenty of affection for the beloved island adventure. If ticket sales soften instead, the studio may have to rely heavily on international markets to keep the remake on course for long-term success.
