Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday? That’s either a box office curse — or a golden ticket. This year, it looks like the latter.
Early weekend trends show a strong holiday surge, with romance, animation and noir all fighting for attention. But right now, one title has the clearest edge.
💔 ‘Wuthering Heights’ Leads With Premium Pull
Wuthering Heights, directed by Emerald Fennell and starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, is currently eyeing $11M–$12M on Friday (including $3M in Thursday previews). A $40M 4-day Presidents Day total is still within reach across 3,682 theaters.
The film is dominating premium formats — IMAX, Dolby Cinema, dine-ins, drive-ins — boosting ticket averages through upcharges. Social buzz is also unusually strong for a romantic drama, with its online reach reportedly far above genre norms.
However, as is common with female-skewing titles, industry watchers are debating whether the film will be frontloaded or if Valentine’s Saturday will drive a bigger-than-expected surge.
For comparison, the last time Valentine’s Day landed on a Saturday (11 years ago), Fifty Shades of Grey opened to a massive $93M four-day haul. While Wuthering Heights isn’t tracking that high, the holiday alignment is clearly working in its favor.
🐐 ‘GOAT’ Gains Family Momentum
At 3,863 locations, GOAT from Sony Pictures Animation is projecting $6M Friday (including $1M previews) and around $24M for the 4-day weekend.
Family audiences have had limited fresh animation choices in recent weeks, and that could help GOAT overperform. Social conversation around the film has been notably positive, with praise focused on its kinetic animation style and music-driven energy.
Critically, it’s sitting comfortably fresh — and strong PostTrak scores from kids and parents indicate healthy word-of-mouth potential.
💎 ‘Crime 101’ Plays the Noir Card
Crime 101 from Amazon MGM Studios is looking at $4M Friday (with $1M previews) and about $14M over four days at 3,161 locations.
Led by Chris Hemsworth alongside Halle Berry and Mark Ruffalo, the noir thriller boasts the strongest critical score of the weekend’s new releases — hovering in the mid-80% range on Rotten Tomatoes.
Still, prestige reviews don’t always equal explosive openings, especially on a holiday dominated by romance and family fare.
📉 Holdovers & The Bigger Picture
In fourth place, Send Help from 20th Century Studios is tracking close to $10M over four days, pushing its total near $48M by Monday.
Solo Mio from Angel Studios is seeing a $7.3M 4-day second weekend, bringing its cumulative total to $17.2M.
Meanwhile, Zootopia 2 continues its steady run, adding to its impressive global haul past the $400M mark.
💬 Industry Take
Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian noted that holidays typically hurt theatrical turnout when they land on major moviegoing days. But this year’s Valentine’s Saturday is proving to be an exception — offering the perfect romantic night-out scenario.
With Monday’s Presidents Day extending the frame, forecasting remains tricky. The weekend’s shape may resemble a “bell curve,” with heavy Saturday gains and softer Friday-to-Sunday trends.
🎯 Final Words
Right now, Wuthering Heights has the Valentine’s advantage — premium screens, strong social chatter, and the right holiday alignment.
But animation’s steady pull and noir’s critical strength keep the race interesting.
The real verdict will come after Saturday numbers roll in. One thing’s certain: love is in the air — and so is serious box office competition.
